Severe Weather 2026

[slenker]

Kentucky has been hit way too hard this decade; really hoping that whatever inevitably happens stays out of their way.

What are some of the analogs? Sorry for so many questions, I'm just not good at reading advanced forecast maps/skew-Ts and such.

All good on the questions. I'm not sure myself - this is a question better reserved for the actual meteorologists on here. Analogs for any specific event for this upcoming time frame are still too far out to tell IMO, that should be reserved for when any potential event comes within 5 days or happening or so. The troughing regime being shown on the ensembles looks similar to the troughing we saw before big outbreaks occurred last spring though.

I'm going to hold my tongue on anything specific occurring past March 5th because that's just so far out. But it's looking like the general pattern will support severe weather, and potentially a significant event if things line up correctly.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Anything close to that would be nuts, especially for early-mid March.

3/13/90 redux anyone?

 

[TheSuckZone]

Anything close to that would be nuts, especially for early-mid March.

3/13/90 redux anyone?

Oof, no thanks.

 

[Kds86z]

DESPITE THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP (INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, REPEATED
CYCLOGENESIS) IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (DAYS 7 AND 8), THE
SPECIFIC ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER-LOWS. GIVEN THAT MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING THE
DETAILS OF PATTERN CHANGES, WILL HOLD OFF ON TRYING TO HIGHLIGHT ANY
SPECIFIC CORRIDOR FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AT THIS TIME.

..MARSH.. 02/26/2026

 

[RFD66]

Nasty......
Welcome to 2026 tornado season.

 

[Ledian]

Today's slight risk for hail just south of me came out of nowhere. But it gives me something to keep an eye on.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Looks like a severe thunderstorm watch is coming for my area soon, for potential large hail

 

[MichelleH]

Looks like a severe thunderstorm watch is coming for my area soon, for potential large hail

There's a storm with a ton of lightning to my southwest. Thankfully it's not coming here.

 

[MichelleH]

Here's the area for the possible severe t'storm watch, if they do issue it.

 

[MichelleH]

That storm below me now has a severe t'storm warning for 60 mph gusts and half-dollar size hail.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Decent little hail core near pinson. I'm waiting to drive home to miss that. My coworker said the power went out at his house just north of pinson. Purple reflectivity on precip too.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Considerable threat tag now on the storm. Knocked out my friends power. Not sure the amount of hail pinson got though.

Radar indicated 1.75 inch hail and 60mph winds.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Big hail storm at my parents house. I'll send video shortly.

* I can't figure out how to post but here is a screenshot of the video

 

[Clancy]

Beautiful structure on this cell near Pell City.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Lot of damage in pinson. It smells like pinesol throughout the city. I've never seen fog like this during the day. Hail still here after about 45 minutes

 

[Justin Hindman]

Structural damage to my
Buddy’s house in Trussville. Looked like a small tornado could of hit possibly , it matched with the small
Couplet. I’m thinking it was a microburst tho

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Damage at my sister's house that's preventing people from getting out

 

[Kds86z]