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January 23-25th Winter Wx

I'm maintaining at 31 degrees
 
We got some special 18z soundings - always fun to check out on winter weather and severe weather days; I love looking at the way the profile changes between sites

A deep cold profile in Little Rock, brisk northeasterly flow below 1km in that low level cold air mass south of the arctic ridge; only very briefly melting there above 1km, kinda on the sleet and snow line

Screenshot 2026-01-24 132415.png

Ice storm profile in Shreveport unsurprisingly; melting at 1-3km and quickly freezing on surfaces in the lowest 500m - this would be sleet just a little north of this profile but icing is gonna be a big issue across northern LA

Screenshot 2026-01-24 132424.png

Aaaand that profile is clear at Jackson, MS, but surface temperature is 41, a cool rain. Nasty profile for freezing rain when surface temperatures fall though. Very impressive wind profiles down here on the coastal plain for tomorrow if we get thunderstorms with nice directional shear in the low levels not far from the front

Screenshot 2026-01-24 132352.png
 
Getting freezing rain now. Most of the time, it's hard to tell if freezing rain is falling because 1. it's hard to see and 2. it doesn't make the same sound as rain.
 
FFC has expanded swaths of .25"+ ice accumulation over Georgia compared to predicted totals from earlier today. They remain confident in accumulations generally north and east of I-20 and I-75. Sharp cutoff, though, with a few miles determining whether you get a solid coat of ice or pretty much nothing at all. Relevant portions of latest AFD included below.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
343 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 333 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

- An Ice Storm Warning remains in effect for most of north
Georgia through Monday morning due to an expected significant
ice storm that will bring widespread power outages and
impossible travel to many locations.

- Dangerously cold nighttime temperatures from Monday to
potentially Thursday will be an added concern for those still
without power and vulnerable populations.

- There will be an additional risk for severe thunderstorms in
central Georgia Sunday afternoon with a threat for damaging
wind gusts and a tornado or two.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

What Has Changed:

- A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for roughly the northwest
two-thirds of the area from 4 AM to 10 AM Monday given very cold
wind chills in the wake of the cold front.

- The severe thunderstorm risk for Sunday afternoon has increased
in portions of Middle Georgia with damaging wind gusts and a
couple of tornadoes possible.

Ice Storm Overview:

The Ice Storm Warning areal extent remains unchanged from previous
updates with the highest confidence in significant impacts remaining
in the quadrant of north/northeast Georgia roughly between I-20 and
I-75. In these areas, ice accumulations in excess of a quarter inch
remain likely. Meanwhile, one-half to three-quarter inch ice
accretion is most probable in the climatologically-favored CAD area
of northeast GA (places like Gainesville, Winder, Athens) where the
wedge will be most persistent. Widespread and potentially long-
lasting power outages as well as dangerous to impossible travel can
be expected in much of this area beginning tonight and persisting
through Sunday. Lower confidence in forecast ice totals exists along
the southern and western portions of the Warning area where earlier
changeover to rain could occur if the wedge is scoured out more
efficiently. While freezing rain onset has been/will be earlier for
northwest Georgia, the quickest transition to rain is expected in
these areas as well as warm air advection increases Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, a light glaze remains possible late tonight into Sunday
morning for those within the Winter Weather Advisory area, though
overall impacts will be more muted before a changeover to rain
occurs.

Wedge Forecast and Uncertainties Saturday Night/Sunday:

The CAD wedge continues to build into north Georgia in earnest as
dewpoints drop into the teens and 20s as it does so. This airmass
will support evaporative cooling as precipitation begins late this
evening into tonight, representing a reinforcing mechanism to allow
for an extended period of freezing rain. While global models
notoriously struggle with the staying power of the wedge, CAMs
continue to represent the expected progression much better through
Sunday as temperatures look to hold below freezing from much of the
Atlanta metro northeastward through at least midday Sunday. Erosion
along the southern/western edge likely will not begin in earnest
until midday or afternoon as a surface low and its associated warm
air advection will begin to chip away at the periphery. With that
said, a very sharp temperature gradient will exist, perhaps 30
degrees across a few counties, by Sunday afternoon. For this reason,
freezing rain will likely be ongoing within some counties while just
to the south and west, much warmer conditions will put an end to the
this threat. Meanwhile, much of northeast Georgia will likely remain
below freezing through the bulk of the day.

Cold Temperatures Make a Rapid Return:

A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued from 4 AM to 10 AM Monday as
a renewed Arctic airmass surges into the area behind a cold front.
This will be problematic in a couple of ways. First, the rapidly
plunging temperatures Sunday evening/night will refreeze any liquid
water across north Georgia as well as re-solidify any remaining ice
on trees, powerlines, and roads. Second, those experiencing power
outages will be more exposed to dangerous cold and will need to find
alternate sources of heat or shelter. Minimum wind chill values
Monday morning are forecast in the single digit to 15 degree range
within the Cold Weather Advisory area.

Wind:

Lastly, gusty winds both in advance of and behind the cold front
will present issues, particularly for areas with trees compromised
by ice. Initial E to SE winds tonight into Sunday morning at 10-15
mph with gusts over 20 mph will weaken tree stability, especially
those coated in ice, while post-frontal NW winds of 15-20 mph with
gusts 25-30+ mph could also further exacerbate the problem late
Sunday into Sunday night. Downed trees and additional power outages
could be expected.
Click to expand...
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Half time report please. I'm a weather enthusiast and not as knowledgeable on the subject as most of you but so far how is this storm playing out relative to predictions in yall's opinons and what's next ? I'm in Madison, Ms and we've been having light rain and 35 degrees for abot 4 hours now.
 
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