January 23-25th Winter Wx

[JPWX]

I agree with @Clancy. The only thing not locked in is main type of precipitation. Otherwise, we're locked in at this point for a major winter storm

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Well I guess it's time to finally winterize the pool...

Given the lack of snow removal infrastructure in these areas, this mess is gonna persist well into Monday

Given the consistently low temperatures following the event, if something doesn't change significantly, I think things will remain hectic until Thursday or Friday next week easily. This would be a huge event even up here in the Midwest, down South it's basically unprecedented. It's not like Northern states can just send plows to mop it up quickly either, because snow and ice is covering such a large area from Dallas to Charleston.

 

[Gail]

I agree with @Clancy. The only thing not locked in is main type of precipitation. Otherwise, we're locked in at this point for a major winter storm

We normally get power back on super fast here in town since all the services are within a block of where I live (Monroe County EPA is awesome), but I am worried we may be out for days with this one.

 

[Clancy]

New graphic from FFC on the major winter storm threat. High confidence for substantial impacts along and north of a LaGrange to Macon to Augusta line.

 

[Ars4ua]

It's a "choose your own mess" kind of GEFS ensemble.

View attachment 50050

What would need to happen to prevent the warm nose ?

 

[Ars4ua]

Im really curious to how strong this CAD wedge will be.

Me too. Models usually don’t handle these well

 

[MMWX]

Is CAD short for Cold Air Dam?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Is CAD short for Cold Air Dam?

Yes

 

[sak]

IDK how relevant this really is, but interesting to note... The EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) hit -381 on January 18th. Best I can tell, that's the lowest it has been since January 26th, 1991. This metric tends to correlate with steering brutally cold arctic air into the lower 48.

For reference, before the March 12/13, 1993 blizzard, the values were in the -250 to -300 range on March 10 to March 13th and Birmingham dropped to 2 degrees on March 14th.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Oh thats not good at all several hours ago I was in like a 40% now its a 70 I think the red shades are weird

 

[JPWX]

I don't know what the Euro AI Ensemble is smoking, but I like it. Has 30% to 70% probabilities of seeing equal to or greater than 12 inches of snow for North MS and 20% probability of seeing equal to or greater than 18 inches. LOL!

 

[akt1985]

There is now an Extreme Cold Watch in effect for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

18z Euro just decided everyone gets in on the fun. Holy crap. I don't remember ever seeing such a widespread high impact snow event. Everything in purple is 6+ inches.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I don't know what the Euro AI Ensemble is smoking, but I like it. Has 30% to 70% probabilities of seeing equal to or greater than 12 inches of snow for North MS and 20% probability of seeing equal to or greater than 18 inches. LOL!

Generational Euro crack run.

 

[Equus]

GFS needs to settle down

 

[JPWX]

View attachment 50063

View attachment 50064

GFS needs to settle down

That GIF fits perfectly! LOL!

 

[Atomz]

Could someone post the 18z Euro ice totals for the SE?

 

[JPWX]

Here you go

 

[Ars4ua]

View attachment 50063

View attachment 50064

GFS needs to settle down

Help explain this for me ?

 

[Atomz]

Here you go

Euro is hellbent on giving ATL a monster ice storm, lmao.

Honestly, with how consistent these ice teens have been, I wouldn’t be surprised if we were under a watch by tomorrow afternoon.