Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[ColdFront]

It’s an extreme example but here is this mornings special 16Z launch at Jan vs BMX on 4/27/11. Today had an especially saturated profile, although still impressive. The cap/EML on 4/27/11 was a lot stronger and prevented any kind of showers we saw today from popping up and overrunning the warm sector.

 

[Mike S]

Not out of the woods yet, I guess

 

[KevinH]

Tell me about it, y'all make pages about as fast as I can read them

Seriously though… I had a difficult time keeping up yesterday before you started the filtering. I asked @JayF if there was a way to keep live mode turned OFF (bc it helped keep the comments in order). He said

 

[AJS]

Multiple vortex tornado reported north of Waynesboro according to a storm chaser on Ryan Halls stream.

 

[TornadoFan]

Ryan hall stream says multi vortex tornado on ground in Waynesboro MS supposedly if I heard it correctly

Heard that too.

 

[Kds86z]

Multiple vortex tornado reported north of Waynesboro according to a storm chaser on Ryan Halls stream.

Didn’t they have an ef3 weeks ago??

 

[AJS]

I do not like the look of the storm that @TornadoFan pointed out.

 

[jiharris0220]

It’s an extreme example but here is this mornings special 16Z launch at Jan vs BMX on 4/27/11. Today had an especially saturated profile, although still impressive. The cap/EML on 4/27/11 was a lot stronger and prevented any kind of showers we saw today from popping up and overrunning the warm sector.

View attachment 36355

View attachment 36356

Notice how there’s a lot more mixing in the PBL on the 2011 sounding, that straight up denied any shallow crapvection to form in the first place.

Very similar to last night with the relatively “dry” PBL, which is why there were no messy precip shield like today.

 

[KevinH]

Storm west of State Line might be worth keeping an eye on. It's getting that look.

You mean getting that “look of the hook”?

Sorry.. I’m running on 2.5 hours of sleep from trying to keep up with the thread from yesterday. I’ll log off

 

[AJS]

Newbern storm is looking a lot more impressive now.

 

[Bama Ravens]

 

[KevinH]

Well, so far we haven’t had many violent tornadoes of the truly “long-track” variety in Alabama. I was also worried there would be a point where there were so many tornado warnings in Alabama at once that it would be hard to keep up with them, but that hasn’t been the case.

I’m not calling this a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency or being critical of the forecast. I’m just saying that I’m glad that *so far* it hasn’t been as terrible in Alabama as we feared it could be.

It’s just getting started though

 

[AJS]

Newbern storm is looking a lot more impressive now.

Never mind, weakened a bit on the latest scan.

 

[KevinH]

As a heads up, BMX might be having issues auto posting their warnings

 

[buckeye05]

It’s just getting started though

We don't know that for sure. It could go either way at this point.

 

[Equus]

Those state line storms have decent structure on velocity, even if weak; given the proclivity of every single echo today to start spinning wildly I guess that's a good call. Despite over an inch and a half of rain it's still 67/66 here which is still enough to get something done with forcing from a line

 

[AJS]

Storm north of Waynesboro weakened significantly.

 

[AJS]

Those state line storms have decent structure on velocity, even if weak; given the proclivity of every single echo today to start spinning wildly I guess that's a good call

That storm south of Waynesboro definitely has a look to it for sure.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[tornado examiner]

I could see a tail end Charley storm going nuts for awhile in the untapped environment along the coast.