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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

warneagle said:
lots of cool season events in there interestingly enough, wonder why that is?
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if i were guessing, it is because while CAPE is sufficient, it is does not look overwhelming like we often see in events later in the season. 1000-2000 joules per kilogram is nothing to sneeze at, but is still a far cry from the 4000+ joules per kilogram levels of instability we saw on 4/27/2011 (or other April events)
 
Just went back through SPC event list back to 2000 for March High Risk Days. Just 6 total.
1. March 4th, 2004, 2. March 1st, 2007, 3. March 2nd, 2012, 4. March 17th, 2021, 5. March 25th, 2021, and 6. March 31st, 2023.
 
sak said:
if i were guessing, it is because while CAPE is sufficient, it is does not look overwhelming like we often see in events later in the season. 1000-2000 joules per kilogram is nothing to sneeze at, but is still a far cry from the 4000+ joules per kilogram levels of instability we saw on 4/27/2011 (or other April events)
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The Cape values are actually a bit higher than 2000j/kg.

Most of the OWS has SB-cape exceeding 3000j/kg, which for mid march is absolutely ludicrous.
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JPWX said:
Just went back through SPC event list back to 2000 for March High Risk Days. Just 6 total.
1. March 4th, 2004, 2. March 1st, 2007, 3. March 2nd, 2012, 4. March 17th, 2021, 5. March 25th, 2021, and 6. March 31st, 2023.
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I remember the March 1, 2007 one vividly. That's the day EF4 tornado struck Enterprise, AL and killed 8 students. I lived nearby.
 
wx_guy said:
I remember the March 1, 2007 one vividly. That's the day EF4 tornado struck Enterprise, AL and killed 8 students. I lived nearby.
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I remember March 2nd 2012 event because we had just moved in our new house few weeks before
 
sak said:
I don't really buy the whole notion that certain communities are favored to get hit over other communities in a close area. People really struggle with understanding sample size... and with tornadoes which are very small relative to the size of the state, it takes a massive number over 1000+ years to really get any idea on how susceptible specific communities or neighborhoods are.

Imagine a roulette wheel where each spin is a violent tornado and each number is a town. We have spun the wheel about maybe 100 times over the last several decades , and yes, a few numbers have come up 2 or 3 times... while plenty of other numbers have not come up at all. But what happens when we spin it 500 more times? or 5000 more times? Will those same numbers that have been hit multiple times recently keep coming up or will things even out? Anyone who has played roulette knows that a number can be hit 3 times in a 5 spin sample and then not be hit again for another 150 spins.


Now is northwestern Alabama more susceptible tornadoes than central Georgia? Sure... but I think people should be very careful in thinking that Pleasant Grove or Tuscaloosa or Piedmont or Moore OK are somehow dramatically different than Hoover or Anniston or West Blocton just because in our very small sample size of tornadoes, those communities have or haven't been as devastated as often.
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This is the typical line - but there is something to the fact that highway 69 corridor, Tuscaloosa to Counterpoint, northern Shelby County (in the bham metro) and Nashville where I lived for 15 years, the same path from bellevue through the northern part of downtown, east Nashville, over to hermitage, have been hit by strong tornados multiple times since we've had good records. I don't have data to back it up, but my hypothesis is a combination of angle of approach from the most dynamic systems in combo with topographical enhancement. especially valley's or plateaus among more rugged areas. Tornados can go over mountains and through rugged terrain, but just given the data we have, it seems far more likely that if there are significant, long track tornados, they will be in some of these corridors of sw to ne flat areas among mountains.
 
lake.effect said:
I think it's fair to say that as of right now, the likely ceiling of this event is a "repeat" of April 27th. That doesn't mean we're going to get a repeat of April 27th, but the potential is there.
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whats crazy to me these is a general acceptance of this sentiment throughout the weather community when in the past, you couldn't even mention the date when comparing to other systems....
 
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