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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Brandon said:
I've already stressed to the "well we're not even in the highest risk area" coworkers and neighbors to not get complacent b/c things will likely change and not for the better.
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My first reaction to seeing the D3 this morning I can't write on this forum. And then I had to write a FB post explaining that no matter what the map said, we are STILL under a significant threat. I'm glad Fred explained the possible rationale for the southward plummet of the bullseye, because I couldn't see a reason for it. Hopefully, this doesn't add to the complacency of any normies who see it shared on social media, like your coworkers. Already tried to explain to someone that a little rain is not going to kill the tornado threat in N. AL but realized it's not worth my time.
 
I am new to the board, and am very amateur in my meteorological knowledge. As someone who lives on the central Georgia/Alabama border, what is the main reason why these things seem to die off at the border in general? Obviously there are examples where it breaks through, there have been 8-9 confirmed tornadoes in Troup County in the last 15 years, but it seems as if they fade quickly. Is it the Florida peninsula inhibiting moisture return, or a mix of things? Thanks, really enjoying the discussion on this one and we are still getting prepared as this one looks like it wont fade as quickly as others.
 
TVILLE96 said:
for Saturday. Station 99.5 just repeated a 5/5 for Saturday. 5 is the highest, correct? I take this is incorrect. Sorry.
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If they're referencing the SPC categorical risk, then yes it's incorrect. It's possible to likely it WILL become a 5/5 (high risk), but the highest SPC will go on Day 3 is moderate (4/5)
 
TVILLE96 said:
for Saturday. Station 99.5 just repeated a 5/5 for Saturday. 5 is the highest, correct? I take this is incorrect. Sorry.
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Regardless of what they are saying, it has not been upgraded to that level. It has been upgraded to the Moderate 4/5 risk. A High 5/5 isn't possible on the Day 3 outlook. SPC doesn't physically allow themselves to do it based on their system in place. The earliest they can go HIGH 5/5 is the Day 2 (day before) outlook, and they have only done that twice in history. You are understanding correctly what the station is saying, but the information they are broadcasting is incorrect with zero room for debate.
 
TVILLE96 said:
for Saturday. Station 99.5 just repeated a 5/5 for Saturday. 5 is the highest, correct? I take this is incorrect. Sorry.
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I think I'd have to call them out on that via social media, email or whatever. I'd include postings from the SPC, with graphics saved to and uploaded from your computer. All in a kind, polite and informative manner.
 
HRRR is showing its classic bias it has until 24 hrs out or less of having no cap, despite having the big EML lapse rate plume... which is physically unrealistic. However, interesting to note that, despite what it shows in the predawn to mid morning, it's starting with widespread 2000+ SBCAPE and MLCAPE over a large part of MS at 12z Saturday. Other models not only more realistically have the predawn/morning cap, but are trending stronger with it as we get closer.
 
OK, enough. I think at this point we all realize that SPC will not be issuing a high risk today for D3. Can we stop talking about it and save posts for information about the actual threat? Once this event starts popping off Friday, if you post something blatantly off topic for this thread (and I see it) it will be removed and you will get a warning. If you do it again, you will be removed. @Mike S , is that ok with you? This is too dangerous a threat for bickering imo, and as such, I think a one warning rule should apply during the event.
 
I’m still relatively amateurish, what day is shaping up to be more dangerous? From what i’ve looked at, Saturday seems to be the more volatile set up.
 
I will preface what I'm about to say with the fact that I am in no way in any shape, form, or fashion whatsoever calling for a 2011 repeat or close to it. Now, to my actual message lol... Since the 2011 outbreak when Ray Charles saw that coming days in advance, we've seen upgrades to the RAP, the HRRR, the GFS, and the Euro change parameterizations and other things that may help them score better on the verification stats for something like 500mb heights, but it's been a significant detriment to their ability to handle the reality of things like cap strength, convective initiation and coverage, boundary layer moisture vs mixing, low-level wind response to pressure and height falls, and all these other things that are life and death critical to accurate severe weather forecasting. I honestly feel like if we were hypothetically handed another 4/27/2011 down to a minute by minute, mile by mile carbon copy of it, none of the models would handle it correctly until 24 hours and less, some not even at 00-01 hr, and it's very possible that some of your most well-respected mets that saw 2011 for what it was days in advance wouldn't be able to do the same with confidence with today's current state of model framework.
 
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