Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[tennessee storm chaser]

I can see them doing with a large 10% hatched and maybe D1 they go with a 15% tornado risk.

Thinking day 2. 45 wins hatched ?

 

[Brice W]

I'd be surprised if there wasn't even a day 3 moderate.

Definitely on the table. Last one was Easter 2020, which stayed MDT because of the uncertainty and discrepancy. Can’t wait to see the HRRR runs on this.

 

[Clancy]

Normal

 

[Clancy]

Definitely on the table. Last one was Easter 2020, which stayed MDT because of the uncertainty and discrepancy. Can’t wait to see the HRRR runs on this.

Worth noting that, despite being a MDT all day, it became one of the largest outbreaks in American history.

 

[MichelleH]

Yikes that’s horrifying, did you get any glimpses of the wall cloud or what it looked like?

No, we were heading for the bathroom which was the only room without windows.

 

[Brice W]

Thinking day 2. 45 wins hatched ?

Without a doubt. I think it was @Clancy said this could be a full on derecho. However. Models seem to be slightly breaking this up into a more discrete look.

 

[Maxis_s]

Definitely on the table. Last one was Easter 2020, which stayed MDT because of the uncertainty and discrepancy. Can’t wait to see the HRRR runs on this.

Wasn't there one in 2022 or 2023?

 

[MMWX]

Reminder that the general public doesn't get their weather info from the SPC. They get it from their local meteorologists. Whether or not they break out the pink sharpie doesn't really matter to the general public.

 

[Brice W]

Actually if I remember the last one was the 3/31 system. The one before that was the Easter 2020

 

[slenker]

This is absolutely an event where I can see them ending up with a 45% hatched tornado risk on D1. I can also see them maintaining a moderate risk for the event too, especially if the CAMs downtrend it hard. I think a D3 moderate risk is needed for this system based on what we’re seeing - and I absolutely believe it will become a high risk for tornadoes. But it’s definitely not impossible for a downtrend to occur with the models still.

 

[Clancy]

Reminder that the general public doesn't get their weather info from the SPC. They get it from their local meteorologists. Whether or not they break out the pink sharpie doesn't really matter to the general public.

That said, there has certainly been an effort to unify some of the graphics and wording, with a lot more folks using the "Level X out of 5" phrasing.

 

[jiharris0220]

I can see them doing with a large 10% hatched and maybe D1 they go with a 15% tornado risk.

I’m mainly talking about the straight line winds for Friday, as that will likely be a wind driven 15% moderate risk.

For tornadoes I’m fairly confident they will go 10% hatched, particularly for the southern end of the dry line.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

00Z HRW-FV3 is rather ominous for overnight Friday-Saturday in the mid-South and perhaps even as far north/east as central Indiana. However, it has a known bias toward "supercell printer" mode, perhaps even moreso than the HRRR.

 

[Brice W]

This is absolutely an event where I can see them ending up with a 45% hatched tornado risk on D1. I can also see them maintaining a moderate risk for the event too, especially if the CAMs downtrend it hard. I think a D3 moderate risk is needed for this system based on what we’re seeing - and I absolutely believe it will become a high risk for tornadoes. But it’s definitely not impossible for a downtrend to occur with the models still.

I didn’t wanna say it but I was thinking the same thing. Reminds me the lead up to 5/20/19. This is definitely rivaling the components of the lead up to that event.

 

[MMWX]

That said, there has certainly been an effort to unify some of the graphics and wording, with a lot more folks using the "Level X out of 5" phrasing.

Point is, any decent local TV met will be able to get information to his/her viewers without crying wolf. They have the same tools at their disposal as the SPC. The SPC is absolutely crucial to the weather backbone of this country but a local weatherman doesn't need a high risk to be issued to properly prepare his/her viewers for severe weather.

 

[Clancy]

Point is, any decent local TV met will be able to get information to his/her viewers without crying wolf. They have the same tools at their disposal as the SPC. The SPC is absolutely crucial to the weather backbone of this country but a local weatherman doesn't need a high risk to be issued to properly prepare his/her viewers for severe weather.

Absolutely!

 

[MichelleH]

I didn't mean to strike a political chord with my choice of phrasing. I think NOAA and the NWS are invaluable and I hate seeing them gutted. I'm extremely pro science, truth, and reason if that tells you anything.

Edit: All i'm trying to say, is it's a reasonable conversation to consider changing the day 3 risk from moderate to high.

Ok, it's not being changed and we are getting off the rails. This subject needs to be closed. Now.

 

[wx_guy]

I still think the main question and point if possible failure for Saturday is in the morning convection and how it affects the later stuff. The CAMs will be useful to spitball that.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

100% hear you guys, and really admire the lockstep in defense of experts who have the extremely delicate and stressful job of creating public messaging at the highest level. Sorry for any perceived disrespect. I'm sure what they can't do with classification, they'll more than make up for with strong language. Now isn't the time to change the established systems we all rely on. It's a conversation for another time.

 

[Brice W]

I still think the main question and point if possible failure for Saturday is in the morning convection and how it affects the later stuff. The CAMs will be useful to spitball that.

This is about the only thing I can see stopping this from being a significant weather event. Problem is if the capping is too much storms could initiate into the night and by then you’d still have high kinematics for tornadoes that could be significant.