Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[UncleJuJu98]

Maybe a bit of contamination/feedback on that? That hodograph is insane.

I was thinking that too, but the wind fields in general are very strong

 

[The Nino]

My take. SPC Day 3 wording for Friday doesn't give me any good feelings particularly that last part. Given this, Friday is definitely a contender for Level 4 Moderate Risk. Saturday is as well with High upgrade looking probable. NOW is the time to know where your safe place is, make sure you have multiple ways of getting warnings, etc.

Convection may develop later across AR into the TN Valley/Deep
South. However, deeper Gulf moisture will be in place across this
region (possible mid/upper 60s F). This will support stronger
instability amid supercell wind profiles. Large-scale ascent will be
more subtle across this area, but sharpening of the dryline across
AR and low-level confluence should support convective development
during the evening. Initial supercells may grow upscale into a line
moving across portions of AR/TN/northern MS/AL. An attendant risk of
strong tornadoes and swaths of damaging/potentially significant wind
gusts is expected across the Mid-South with this activity.

A more conditional risk for overnight supercells exists across parts
northern/central MS/AL. The environment could support intense
supercells capable of producing large hail and strong tornadoes this
far south, but forcing mechanisms will be weak. Trends will be
monitored and future outlook adjustments may be needed.

moderate and high risk back to back in the same areas is pretty unreal

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I was thinking that too, but the wind fields in general are very strong

EHI may be better to pull for the environment. But we're pulling like 8-9s it seems like at 3km and probably pretty high in 1km. In general the atmosphere is Goated lol

 

[Clancy]

My take. SPC Day 3 wording for Friday doesn't give me any good feelings particularly that last part. Given this, Friday is definitely a contender for Level 4 Moderate Risk. Saturday is as well with High upgrade looking probable. NOW is the time to know where your safe place is, make sure you have multiple ways of getting warnings, etc.

Convection may develop later across AR into the TN Valley/Deep
South. However, deeper Gulf moisture will be in place across this
region (possible mid/upper 60s F). This will support stronger
instability amid supercell wind profiles. Large-scale ascent will be
more subtle across this area, but sharpening of the dryline across
AR and low-level confluence should support convective development
during the evening. Initial supercells may grow upscale into a line
moving across portions of AR/TN/northern MS/AL. An attendant risk of
strong tornadoes and swaths of damaging/potentially significant wind
gusts is expected across the Mid-South with this activity.

A more conditional risk for overnight supercells exists across parts
northern/central MS/AL. The environment could support intense
supercells capable of producing large hail and strong tornadoes this
far south, but forcing mechanisms will be weak. Trends will be
monitored and future outlook adjustments may be needed.

Yeah, not to get caught up in Broyles' sharpies, but D3 MDT seems like a practical possibility for Saturday.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Man, if we end up with that many discrete cells for that long of a timeframe...that's what, 15 hours before it goes linear?
I don't want to sound alarmist but this is one of the nastiest looking setups I've seen in a couple years.

Worst since March 25, 2021 imo.

 

[Parker Copeland]

Yeah, not to get caught up in Broyles' sharpies, but D3 MDT seems like a practical possibility for Saturday.

yup, they don't often mention outlook upgrades may be needed on D4

 

[chasestormz39]

It's always risky to increase the SPC outlook too early, but I do think there's a shot at a day 3 MDT for parts of MS/AL. It appears Friday is also heading in the direction of a MDT risk in a large spatial area.

 

[Clancy]

06Z GEFS. It's something else to see SCP probs >50% at 8 o'clock in Georgia. And the CSU probabilities, my goodness.

 

[jiharris0220]

This thread is going to surpass 100 pages before the Friday event even starts at this rate.

 

[Clancy]

Also, guess I glossed over this while reading the mid-range disco by Leitman this morning, but explicit mention of a severe outbreak at the beginning of the disco. I don't have any specific memory of seeing that for mid-range forecasts in recent years in the Southeast, does anyone remember the last time we had that?

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SAT...

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Sat - Central Gulf Coast States to the Ohio Valley...

A strong large-scale upper trough is forecast to quickly move across
the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. An intense jet streak will
move across the Deep South into the OH Valley as this occurs. At the
surface, a low secondary to the 980 mb low over the Upper Midwest is
forecast to develop during the late morning/early afternoon across
the mid-South. This will aid in further northward transport of rich
Gulf moisture into portions of the Lower MS Valley and TN Valleys.
Atop this moisture-primed boundary layer, cold 500 mb temperatures
are forecast. This may support fairly steep lapse rates, which would
foster moderate instability across portions of MS/AL amid supercell
wind profiles. However, some uncertainty remains tied to the
evolution of convection in the Day 3/Fri period into the morning
hours of Saturday. Some forecast guidance suggests a relatively
pristine warm sector will be maintained, or if only isolated
convection develops overnight/early Saturday, recovery could occur.
If this scenario unfolds, a concerning severe weather setup
supporting all-hazard severe could unfold across portions of
LA/MS/AL through the day and into evening, and eventually spreading
east into GA overnight. Trends will be monitored closely over the
coming days and further adjustments to the 30 percent/Enhanced risk
area may be needed in future outlooks.

With northward extent, instability will become more limited.
Nevertheless, sufficient moisture amid intense deep-layer flow will
support swaths of strong/damaging winds into the Ohio Valley and
portions of the central Appalachians Saturday and Saturday night.
Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if
confidence increases.

...Day 5/Sun - North Florida into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic...

A strong upper trough will shift east across the Midwest and
Southeast on Sunday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of
the trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. atop a moist
boundary layer. Bands of convection will likely produce swaths of
strong to severe gusts ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front.

...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed...

An upper trough will move offshore over the Atlantic on Monday,
while a broad upper ridge spreads across the Plains in its wake.
Another large-scale upper trough will move across the western U.S.
on Tuesday, ejecting across the Plains and into the MS Valley on
Wednesday. Some severe potential could return to parts of the
central or south-central states toward the end of the period with
this system, but current model forecasts suggest moisture return in
the wake of the Day 4/5 system will remain poor. Trends will be
monitored over the coming days.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2025

 

[pritchlaw]

Are there really people who don't know where their "safe place" is for a storm? I can envision a "family meeting" on the night before storms where the dad has a white board out and a pointer with a diagram of the house and the kids are all listening to him while holding a stuffed animal.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah, not to get caught up in Broyles' sharpies, but D3 MDT seems like a practical possibility for Saturday.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Work busy right now. Anyone see the 3k12znam for Friday night heard looked pretty interesting for Friday night with the tornado parameters

 

[warneagle]

Are there really people who don't know where their "safe place" is for a storm? I can envision a "family meeting" on the night before storms where the dad has a white board out and a pointer with a diagram of the house and the kids are all listening to him while holding a stuffed animal.

I think people who follow the weather seriously greatly overestimate the weather awareness of the average person, even in a tornado-prone area. You’d probably be horrified to know how many people can’t even pick out their county on a map.

 

[Parker Copeland]

Also, guess I glossed over this while reading the mid-range disco by Leitman this morning, but explicit mention of a severe outbreak at the beginning of the disco. I don't have any specific memory of seeing that for mid-range forecasts in recent years in the Southeast, does anyone remember the last time we had that?

me too I didn't even see that what

 

[KAC11]

This thread is going to surpass 100 pages before the Friday event even starts at this rate.

My bet is 150 by Sunday morning.

 

[Clancy]

Are there really people who don't know where their "safe place" is for a storm? I can envision a "family meeting" on the night before storms where the dad has a white board out and a pointer with a diagram of the house and the kids are all listening to him while holding a stuffed animal.

Yes. There are people who might not think about it, might not have thought to talk to their kids about it, or might live in a mobile home and haven't considered it. People live their lives and most don't pay nearly as much attention to the weather as anyone on here.

 

[The Nino]

This thread is going to surpass 100 pages before the Friday event even starts at this rate.

not comparing the event but this thread gives me April 2011 vibes. Remember following that system a week out and the thread was humming

 

[Clancy]

Just got our weekly NWR test that set off all the radios. Glad they work but gave me a bit of a spook! A reminder to everyone to check your batteries, reception, alert mode, county zoning and channel tuning on your radios, and make sure wireless emergency alerts (WEA) are enabled on your phone.

 

[keithGA]

Yes. There are people who might not think about it, might not have thought to talk to their kids about it, or might live in a mobile home and haven't considered it. People live their lives and most don't pay nearly as much attention to the weather as anyone on here.

Somewhat related but I have often wondered why more mobile weather apps don't make mention of severe weather in their forecasts. Most folks probably just glance at their phone app and say "oh, its gonna rain this weekend" and have no idea about how bad it could get.