Well I’d hate for people to discuss the weather. Isn’t that what you said last week?
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16
- Thread starter Bulkshear
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tornado examiner
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We do a little zig zagin’
NorthGaWeather
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It's what we do best as weather enthusiasts.
KevinH
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It is what I said.
No problem with saying "the new EURO shows ______" or "GFS is showing more/less moisture than the previous run"
But screaming Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency based off of one or two model runs that still show a severe weather threat (just not as high of a ceiling) isn't discussing the weather.
tornado examiner
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Has there ever been a case where models downtrended heavily before a potential tornado outbreak but the event itself over performed the models as if they were just wrong outright?
I haven’t seen anyone saying Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. Feel free to point out that post. Otherwise, you’re just doing the same exact thing you got mad at everyone else for doing last week.
Seems to be a pattern with you after you had to delete a comment yesterday where you incorrectly jumped down someone’s throat.
You could say April 26th 2023 was an example arguably. That's just off the top of my head though, I'm sure there have been more.
tornado examiner
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You meant 2024 right?
Yeah sorry
tornado examiner
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Its alright
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This is the one that popped into my mind immediately. You could also make the argument that the Hurricane Milton setup did this too, but that one is way more nebulous because it was a hurricane and the models whiffing on that isn’t as surprising. There’s also events that looked devilish up until they actually occurred (May 6th 2024) so we shouldn’t be getting ahead of ourselves on what will occur until after the event passes. This event still has every capability of becoming a big day.
Forecasting and prediction inherently comes with a high level of operational uncertainty. That is to be expected. Based on both the latest runs and trends/ensembles, a potent severe weather threat is still apparent across the Deep South. CIPS 12Z suite (based on GFS) came in, and it shows one heck of a tornado signal across MS/AL/GA.
A few GFS soundings from the 12Z run
Covington, LA
Ramsey Springs, MS
Clara, MS
Vacherie, LA
Riverview, AL
All of these soundings are in the southern parts of these states. Obviously moisture seems to be inhibiting the northward tornado threat, but the 12z GFS is still painting a long day for for SE LA, Central/South MS, and AL on Saturday.
Covington, LA
Ramsey Springs, MS
Clara, MS
Vacherie, LA
Riverview, AL
All of these soundings are in the southern parts of these states. Obviously moisture seems to be inhibiting the northward tornado threat, but the 12z GFS is still painting a long day for for SE LA, Central/South MS, and AL on Saturday.
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Is CIPS more reliable in severe weather events across the SE? I find it almost completely irrelevant on severe setups over the Plains
I've found it tends to do a pretty good job in helping square in risk geography and has been quite helpful in keying in on things at longer ranges. Obviously no one tool is perfect, but it's been a fairly utilitarian and simple tool in my experience.
ICON 18z is another run bringing a marked decrease in moisture quality, particularly for Friday.
I do think its a good idea not to over analyse every single model run and can understand where people are coming from on here warning against it. At the same time you are looking for existing trends, and whether each new output follows that trend. We most definitely have a trend - decreasing moisture - and ICON 18z plus the rest of the models for the last day fit that. And acknowledging/discussing a current decrease in severe threat doesn't mean you are not aware of the fact things can quickly swing the other way. Maybe I am just being optimistic.
I do think its a good idea not to over analyse every single model run and can understand where people are coming from on here warning against it. At the same time you are looking for existing trends, and whether each new output follows that trend. We most definitely have a trend - decreasing moisture - and ICON 18z plus the rest of the models for the last day fit that. And acknowledging/discussing a current decrease in severe threat doesn't mean you are not aware of the fact things can quickly swing the other way. Maybe I am just being optimistic.
Mrgolfman7070
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Hello guys. I haven't been online here for a while. I'm in jackson tn. Are we pretty much writing off Friday into Friday night for the mid south or is there still room for change to more high end here? Can a higher shear/ cape offset that somewhat with the lower dewpoints as advertised?
Keep your eyes up; it's still early and things can change wildly in many ways, but you should definitely be paying attention to local forecasts.
No, do not write this threat off, at least at this stage.