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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

ColdFront said:
I’ll be extremely interested to see how the NAM depicts this system when it comes into range.
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Yeah, what I'm really wanting to see is if the 989 mb low holds, is the quality of the moisture in Alabama and Mississippi on the NAM and the other mesoscale models, instability is not super impressive on the GFS. But I have a feeling it may not be all that accurate. Time will tell though.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Yeah, what I'm really wanting to see if the 989 mb low holds, is the quality of the moisture in Alabama and Mississippi on the NAM and the other mesoscale models, instability is not super impressive on the GFS. But I have a feeling it may not be all that accurate. Time will tell though.
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Yeah, and the well known NAM cold bias. Interested to see how it handles the lead wave and Gulf moisture as well.
 
TornadoFan17 said:
Most severe weather models so far this year have significantly downtrended as they get closer and closer to the event.

Heck the event last week looked like a super outbreak in the D8/D7/D6 range and it ended up just being an ENH.

I'm not saying it will or won't downtrend, but it's too early to be saying that it won't downtrend at all.

When the cams start picking it up is where I think you can start to get a much clearer picture of what's going to happen.
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I would strongly disagree that the event you referenced looked like a super outbreak. But that’s just me.

This makes me go back to what has been said before and I’ll repeat it. Most already know this too. Models in this timeframe can be very inconsistent. Are we seeing more consistency over the last two days, yes. But still plenty of questions to answer. We’re one flip of the models away from weather weenies cliff jumping.

Someone pointed this out earlier, and in no way am I comparing these two events. But an event as synoptically evident as 4/27 had model inconsistencies in the mid range. At D5 we saw a change that upped the ceiling, but it wasn’t until D3 (or even early D2) when the full scope of what was to come became apparent. Even then, it depended on mesoscale factors. Heck, most thought 4/26 would be the bigger day.

But as of right now, this event has a high ceiling.
 
Bulkshear said:
Well since this is March hopefully the moisture return isn’t as pronounced as it would be a month later. Hopefully since this is early in the season the tornado potential could be limited just a bit since we are not in April.
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The time of year no longer matters. Dixie doesn’t always need as much of the ingredients as people think for big events :(
 
MS and AL: Potential for major tornado outbreak exists Friday thru early Sunday morning. More details to come during the next few days.

Just sent this out to my wx text subscribers. I'm definitely not sugarcoating this.
 
NorthGaWeather said:
. At D5 we saw a change that upped the ceiling, but it wasn’t until D3 (or even early D2) when the full scope of what was to come became apparent. Even then, it depended on mesoscale factors. Heck, most thought 4/26 would be the bigger day.
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If anyone wants to see what I consider to be the absolute apex of meteorological discussion: go check out the 4/27/11 thread on AmericanWX forums. Fred and two other Mets (CUMet and Baroclinic_Instability) give a masterclass on meteorological discussion as the model outputs come through leading up to the event. Fred pretty much nailed the event 3-4 days out, especially with 4/27 being the main event day.
 
Bulkshear said:
Correct me if this is incorrect but with that much shear couldn’t the updrafts get ripped apart since we are struggling with instability?
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Bulk Richardson Number (BRN) is good at giving a ball park on this but I can't seem to locate it on soundings. I think values in-between 10-45 are a good mesh. Anything outside of that is not as ideal.
 
JPWX said:
MS and AL: Potential for major tornado outbreak exists Friday thru early Sunday morning. More details to come during the next few days.

Just sent this out to my wx text subscribers. I'm definitely not sugarcoating this.
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Would you extend that threat north into TN for the tornado threat specifically or do you think this will be more of an AL and MS event for tornadoes? What’s your thoughts on how far north this threat may go?
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Nah this event won't compare, lot more pieces that would need to come together. This event could be dangerous but you probably won't see another April 27th until about 2040-2050 I would guess.
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This post isn’t directed at you, but it made me think of this.

While it will be hard to match the sheer violence of an 1884/1932/1974/2011 type outbreak, Alabama did have its #1 (4/27/11), #2 (4/15/11), and #4 (4/28/14) largest outbreaks within the span of 1,100 ish days. I don’t know what my point is other than #2 and #4 aren’t remembered as vividly, but boy they sure did produce a lot of tornadoes in one day and they occurred relatively close in time.
 
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