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Severe weather Feb 10-13th

Clancy said:
Honestly wouldn't be surprised if there's little in the way of convective intensification until midnight or after. The daytime activity was far from a guarantee. Will be interested in seeing how parameters play out overnight, models are still all over the place.
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All over the place indeed. They are really having a difficult time resolving this setup.
 
Here's the snapshots of all member CAMs of the HREF on the 12z run this morning:

1707698168705.png

In my subjective opinion, the HRRR at 12z has the best handle on how the radar has actually evolved. So let's see what the HRRR looks like moving forward.

At 06z tonight, using the 12z HRRR again:

1707698308874.png


At 12z tomorrow:


1707698351083.png

However it's important to note that more recent HRRR are consistently having the convection too far north. If the 12z run plays out at all though, it looks like most of S and S Central AL need to be on alert overnight. Curious if the 0z HRRR (which comes out soon) will initialize accurately.
 
SPC still thinks that activity in the OWS is possible later tonight.
...01Z Update...

...Lower MS Valley across the Southeast...
00Z surface analysis places a low across east-central LA, with a
warm front extending east-northeastward through central AL. Much of
the thunderstorm activity continues to be north of this boundary,
with large hail as the primary hazard. This general trend is
expected to continue throughout the night, with an attendant threat
for hail remaining throughout the night as well. Development south
of the warm front remains more questionable, but the environment
remains conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe
hazards, including tornadoes. Potential exists for increasing
warm-sector storm coverage as the surface low and associated cold
front move eastward and the low-level flow increase overnight. The
overall environment is expected to remain supportive of supercells
with any deep warm-sector updrafts, and the potential for severe
thunderstorms is expected to persist throughout the night into early
Monday morning from southern LA northeast into central AL.

..Mosier.. 02/12/2024
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Yeah, the setup right now is NOT favorable for the next few hours over AL.


The theta-e change over the last 3 hours is shown below -- in an open warm sector, for severe potential, you usually want to see increasing theta e. (Theta e is a measure of the potential instability available in the atmosphere). The theta e advection, or horizontal movement, is shown below as well. There is a small area in LA and MS where the Theta e is on the move, so maybe that's a "lip" that will unzip into the open warm sector over the next few hours and increase the instability. We'll have to see. This "lip" is easier seen when looking at the CAPE (third image). See the very stable air (with CIN) in AL currently, but higher CAPE over MS and LA. This, by no coincidence, is the area the Tornado Watch is currently in effect.

1707700982685.png

1707700945193.png


1707701361396.png
 
With each run, my mind can only offer a shrug of the shoulders.
floop-hrrr-2024021200.refcmp_uh001h.us_se.gif
 
Storms currently simmering in parts of LA will continue to be in a decent environment. As they trek northeastward, they will be the ones that may cause trouble, if they sustain themselves.
 
BMX's confidence in additional severe has decreased, especially for the northern counties. Seems increasingly likely we will mostly have a rainy mess tomorrow.
 
Justin Hindman said:
spc always doubles down on their original forecast to start the day. After about 5, it looked like a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, but they kept the intense tornado word in their new watch.
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The SPC needs a restructure!
 
Right now severe storms were supposed to be occurring over north Alabama being next to the triple point but so far nothing. Does anyone see anything developing up there later this morning? Right now all that north Alabama is experiencing is thick fog.
 
akt1985 said:
Right now severe storms were supposed to be occurring over north Alabama being next to the triple point but so far nothing. Does anyone see anything developing up there later this morning? Right now all that north Alabama is experiencing is thick fog.
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I reckon it's not impossible but relatively unlikely at this point. Models still showing convection across AL behind this current activity but I don't think it'll be particularly intense.
 
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