Severe Weather Threat - Jan 11-12th, 2024

[CheeselandSkies]

The LLJ doesn't really have much to do with this IMO. It's 55-70 kts out of the SSW, which is more than plenty for a big severe day down here (actually would probably favor it over the due south LLJ given moisture trajectories in the SE). Additionally, the low level response here was always further north and the trough is lifting away with time, which limits forcing for ascent. The thermos just aren't there due to the cold front earlier this week and combining that with decreased large scale ascent is a death knell for stronger convection.

Put 1500-2000 J/kg CAPE over this warm sector and you're talking a potential high risk event. I should say the timing is also a bit off, the most favorable period of the trough's evolution was 2-6 hours ago. This might not matter much though if the temperatures and dewpoints were 10 degrees higher.

Gotcha, thanks. Most of the forecast soundings I saw were pretty much due southwesterly at 850mb, not south-southwesterly. Also, some of the soundings I saw for Tuesday's event had close to 80kts at that level.

As to the second bolded, absolutely.

 

[Forks]

i don't claim to be a meteorologist. common sense dictates that January severe events are relatively rare in north Alabama. there are, of course, exceptions. January events more typically occur over south Alabama. also, the temperatures today just seemed way too low to be conducive to tornado formation. we didn't have warm southwest winds howling. while i have seen a few decent thunderstorms when it's in the 50's outside, they seem to require a whole lot to be going right in the atmosphere to form and typically do not last long. also, when nothing is going on to the west of us, given the same daunting weather data sets and predictions, nothing tends to happen here.

the professional meteorologists should try to step away from their data sometime and remember some very basic facts of existence in Alabama before they compose a forecast. what has happened to common sense? while this event could have come together, under absolutely ideal conditions, the odds were far more in favor of a bust.

 

[JPWX]

Me looking rapidly through latest posts on here:

 

[TH2002]

i don't claim to be a meteorologist. common sense dictates that January severe events are relatively rare in north Alabama. there are, of course, exceptions. January events more typically occur over south Alabama. also, the temperatures today just seemed way too low to be conducive to tornado formation. we didn't have warm southwest winds howling. while i have seen a few decent thunderstorms when it's in the 50's outside, they seem to require a whole lot to be going right in the atmosphere to form and typically do not last long. also, when nothing is going on to the west of us, given the same daunting weather data sets and predictions, nothing tends to happen here.

the professional meteorologists should try to step away from their data sometime and remember some very basic facts of existence in Alabama before they compose a forecast. what has happened to common sense? while this event could have come together, under absolutely ideal conditions, the odds were far more in favor of a bust.

Which is exactly why the SPC didn't upgrade the risk area to MDT.

Yes, today's tornado potential was oversold. So what? Forecasting is an imperfect science. I don't understand why people have to be oh so quick to attack meteorologists and forecasters when an event doesn't live up to its highest ceiling. As for common sense, it left the thread when it devolved into an argument about school closures.

 

[jiharris0220]

Not gonna lie I expected better from this site.
Reading the comments on this thread feels no different than Facebook or twitter.
Sometimes things bust and sometimes things over perform, instead of nagging at the weather service, shouldn’t we be glad sh&t didn’t hit the fan?

 

[Chris3024]

Which is exactly why the SPC didn't upgrade the risk area to MDT.

Yes, today's tornado potential was oversold. So what? Forecasting is an imperfect science. I don't understand why people have to be oh so quick to attack meteorologists and forecasters when an event doesn't live up to its highest ceiling. As for common sense, it left the thread when it devolved into an argument about school closures.

I just want to apologize for my part in what transpired in this thread. I let my emotions get the better of me when I should not have let them.

 

[TH2002]

I just want to apologize for my part in what transpired in this thread. I let my emotions get the better of me when I should not have let them.

No need to apologize to me since I'm not a moderator or anything, but don't fret, it happens. I'll admit my previous post was a bit emotionally charged too lol

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[MichelleH]

No need to apologize to me since I'm not a moderator or anything, but don't fret, it happens. I'll admit my previous post was a bit emotionally charged too lol

Trust me, it took a LOT of self-restraint on my part not to say anything. However, I hope everyone has it out of their system, because this forum will not become Twitter.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Oh there is no doubt it all starts with the forecasters. I said as much early on in this discussion. The battle for viewers is the root cause of this crap forecasting.

I do provide decision support for schools, and the overwhelming majority do not rely on tv news stations for their guidance. It is the local NWS office or EMA. Maybe your school district does, so take it up with the Superintendent.

 

[KevinH]

You got me. I'm not a school administrator. But I don't need to be a pilot to say a plane shouldn't leave the runway without enough to gas to get where it’s going. You sound like the "and where did you get your medical degree" crowd during Covid.

You sound triggered lol

I only ask because people always have something to say about a life they have never lived before.

That’s all I’m saying.

 

[KevinH]

No, I send them there to get an education and don't like the schools closing 10 times a year for a weather event that was over-hyped and never was a threat, like today. So instead of learning like other kids, they are all at home and their teachers are at Buffalo Wild Wings yucking it up about how stupid the school closure was. Got any other hot takes there?

Here’s a hot take:

You don’t have to stay in unpredictable Dixie Alley *IF* schools closing bothers you that much

 

[KevinH]

We can have this same discussion Monday and Tuesday when schools close bc of the possibility of winter precip which, if it happens at all, will prove to not have been bad enough to close schools again. The hype for that event will begin in a few hours after the final tiny possibility of a tree falling somewhere from this level 2/3 severe threat is extinguished.

Wait. You aren’t taking about schools in the Deep South for winter weather are you? You know, the Deep South where most areas are not prepared for bad winter weather? lol

 

[JBishopwx]

A 45-55mph wind gust could have easily tipped over a school bus,...

 

[KevinH]

Trust me, it took a LOT of self-restraint on my part not to say anything. However, I hope everyone has it out of their system, because this forum will not become Twitter.

Thank you. I did not start this thread for someone to get on their political soapbox. If I wanted this thread to be a kit schools closing, etc.

Just when I forget that we can block/ignore someone on here, someone reminds me

 

[JBishopwx]

Thank you. I did not start this thread for someone to get on their political soapbox. If I wanted this thread to be a kit schools closing, etc.

Just when I forget that we can block/ignore someone on here, someone reminds me

Hover around or click on the username.

 

[KevinH]

Hover around or click on the username.

Yep

 

[tornado examiner]

So like…was there even a single tornado confirmed for this event…?

 

[TH2002]

So like…was there even a single tornado confirmed for this event…?

Wouldn't be surprised if the NWS conducts some surveying and finds weak tornado damage from one or two brief spinups, but so far, no. However, there was a confirmed flame war from this event.

 

[KevinH]

So like…was there even a single tornado confirmed for this event…?

Surveys can take time to complete. I am sure someone will post a link here once the NWS is done.