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- #81
Things look rather quiet for us over the next 2 weeks with a potential uptick in activity later in the period.
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Spring 2017 Severe Weather.
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
- Moderator
- #82
Our next relevant severe weather threat appears to be this upcoming weekend.
Kory
Member
Yep. GFS/UKMET want to make Alabama's A-Day in Tuscaloosa interesting. Still a lot of question on how the shortwave ejects, but it looks low amplitude which favors better kinematics....
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- #84
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It is forgotten because of 4/27, but the 4/15/11 storms did damage to Tuscaloosa as well, right before A-Day.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Meanwhile, let's take a look at some sounding porn. Last night's 00z GFS valid for somewhere in SC OK on Friday evening.
I am strongly considering a chase trip to somewhere near the Quad Cities on Wednesday evening, as well.
It is worth noting that the forecast soundings for both days show excellent low-level directional shear, something which was sorely lacking over much of the target area on April 5. Biggest question mark at this point looks to be capping, with at least some CIN remaining on most NAM or GFS soundings valid for 00z the evening in question.
I am strongly considering a chase trip to somewhere near the Quad Cities on Wednesday evening, as well.
It is worth noting that the forecast soundings for both days show excellent low-level directional shear, something which was sorely lacking over much of the target area on April 5. Biggest question mark at this point looks to be capping, with at least some CIN remaining on most NAM or GFS soundings valid for 00z the evening in question.
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GTWXAlum
Member
By the early indications, looks like the CAD regions of n GA and the Carolinas will escape this one too. Easterly flow at the surface will choke off any instability in those areas. This looks to be a Mississippi and Alabama threat mostly as of now.
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LOL I got an automated alert for this post for "sounding porn"
Kory
Member
12z runs continue to advertise a threat into MS/TN and easing into AL later on Saturday. Question will be quality of moisture, but the due westerly 500mb flow indicates a supercellular mode. Still a lot of questions....
The bigger threats may come the following weekend as there is a strong signal from the 27th until the 30th or so. Just keep an eye as the last week in April is often climo favored.
The bigger threats may come the following weekend as there is a strong signal from the 27th until the 30th or so. Just keep an eye as the last week in April is often climo favored.
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- #89
I didn't want to hear that since my son has to go to Memphis the last weekend of the month.
ARCC
Member
The look at 500mb reminds me of an event in 2007 I believe. It may have been the Americus GA tornado, but I'm not sure.
warneagle
Member
Yeah I definitely wouldn't sleep on the area along the warm front between the Quad Cities and Chicago on Wednesday. We've seen some pretty nasty storms ride warm fronts in that part of the country recently.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Ugh, the 18z 3KM NAM has a small area of 0-1 KM EHIs >3 along that warm front, but doesn't break out any discrete convection along it. And, I once again have work at 3AM Thursday and can't take off (not enough staff otherwise), so a 2-3 hour trip to/from the target area basically means no sleep for me. The pull of work and sleep was part of the reason I was in Ogle County, IL at 4 PM on 4/9/15, decided it was another failed early season conditional setup, and drove back home to Madison.
akt1985
Member
I was also hoping to go to the Cornbread Festival in South Pittsburg, TN next weekend.
ARCC
Member
Just to note on this sounding, the model is decoupling the boundary layer creating the CIN. That is a very known GFS bias.
ARCC
Member
Both GFS and Euro with ensembles are wanting to eject a large long wave trough in this period.
Kory
Member
Overnight runs (outside the GFS) and this morning's NAM is showing this weekend's system coming in much flatter. In this scenario, it would be hard pressed to get any severe of note.
Meanwhile, we really need a widespread rain and I'm hoping it starts with this weekend. Otherwise, we'll be entering summer much like last year in which we did not receive much from mid-April onward and it led to a significant drought that developed quite rapidly.
Meanwhile, we really need a widespread rain and I'm hoping it starts with this weekend. Otherwise, we'll be entering summer much like last year in which we did not receive much from mid-April onward and it led to a significant drought that developed quite rapidly.
Kory
Member
Goodness gracious that 12z run of the Euro to close out next week....
Strong signal continues.
Strong signal continues.
ARCC
Member
From the free maps it sure does look classic. First system primes the moisture with a broad based trough pulling in right behind.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Anyone hearing "Humans Being" when they look at those model runs yet?
warneagle
Member
Nah, my mind always goes to "Child in Time," just because it's one of my favorite songs anyway.
*whispering* and also because I don't like Van Halen
*whispering* and also because I don't like Van Halen