Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/26-5/1/17

[tennessee storm chaser]

It is the nature of the trough that is giving us the weaker instability. There are also some VBV issues on Sunday. The trough closes off and becomes too amplified, leading to warmer mid-level temps, and SSW flow in the mid levels. I do think we still have a severe wx threat Sunday, but it will likely come in the form of a QLCS as the main threat....

agree about sunday... warmer mid levels lead to cap issues... see how models handle sunday 0z suits tonight...

 

[Bama Ravens]

BMX is doing a live update. They are discussing that we do have a couple of caps in place, they sound unsure if it will get broken.

Their wording on this video is a couple of brief tornadoes can't be ruled out.

 

[CoreyandFrosty]

BMX is doing a live update. They are discussing that we do have a cap in place, they sound unsure if it will get broken.

where is the update?

 

[Bama Ravens]

where is the update?

On the BMX Facebook page.

 

[Richardjacks]

Looks like both the NAM and HRRR had a handle on both layers of warm air

 

[CoreyandFrosty]

Looks like both the NAM and HRRR had a handle on both layers of warm air

What are your thoughts for Alabama overnight?

 

[CoreyandFrosty]

On the BMX Facebook page.

Thanks

 

[Bama Ravens]

Looks like both the NAM and HRRR had a handle on both layers of warm air

I wonder where the overall idea of the line breaking up and becoming more cellular stands?

 

[Richardjacks]

What are your thoughts for Alabama overnight?

A very limited threat probably near or west I65. If anything happens, it will not be widespread.

 

[Kory]

I wonder where the overall idea of the line breaking up and becoming more cellular stands?

You can already see it beginning to take place....

 

[CoreyandFrosty]

A very limited threat probably near or west I65. If anything happens, it will not be widespread.

Thanks. Do you think Atlanta has a decent chance of severe weather tomorrow?

 

[Xenesthis]

I can't wait for this to clear to have a better idea on the threat for this weekend. I feel the CAPE is being underplayed and I will be curious about the CAP

 

[Bama Ravens]

Slight risk has been trimmed west some. Places like Birmingham were in it earlier.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Does anyone know what happened to the CIPS analog page that showed the scoreboard?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Does anyone know what happened to the CIPS analog page that showed the scoreboard?

Ha! Never mind, I found it.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Btw, here are the tornado probabilities for the latest outlook:

 

[GA Stormchaser]

You can already see it beginning to take place....

Looks like the line is starting to die off, and becoming broken looking. The tops appear to be decreasing also. Wonder if that is due to the capped environment?


Sent from my iPhone using TalkWeather mobile app

 

[Bama Ravens]

New Severe Thunderstorm Watch:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West central and central Alabama

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1100
PM until 500 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Squall line in Mississippi will continue to move eastward
overnight into Alabama. A few of the embedded bowing segments will
continue to pose a threat for damaging gusts, and perhaps marginally
severe hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of
Birmingham AL to 60 miles south of Tuscaloosa AL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

 

[Taylor Campbell]

It's an increasing threat for us here in east central Alabama early morning tomorrow 11z, extending over into west central Georgia through 15z.

 

[CoreyandFrosty]

Looks like storms were dying down but are now gaining some strength again. Some tiny storms trying to form ahead of the line too. Something to watch.