Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/26-5/1/17

Discussion in 'General Weather Discussion' started by Taylor Campbell, Apr 20, 2017.

  1. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

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    The idea seems to be firmly entrenched that things are going to become quite noisy, and violent in the mid-section of the country during this time period.
     
  2. ARCC

    ARCC Member

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    The 12z Euro is close to being both classic and nasty at 216hrs.
     
  3. KG4KBU

    KG4KBU Member

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    As for next weeks threat when does it affect the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions?

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  4. tennessee storm chaser

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    BU, post: 6182, member: 286"]As for next weeks threat when does it affect the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions?

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    lot depends if this comes out as one piece of energy or impulses... fairly broad base trough coming which has been know for some significant tornado outbreaks... areas frist to get in on the action appear east texas east central ok into northern louisiana , western ark... the threat looks to slide over the midsouth to include eastern ark, west tn. northern ms... late friday... interesting see what happens further east... system has one large nice warm sector with dps nearing 70 to lower ohio valley... this one needs to be closely watched folks.
     
  5. Daryl

    Daryl Member

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    Right in the heart of tornado alley.

    [​IMG]

    SPC Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

    ...Friday/Day 8...
    The ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement in the western U.S.,
    developing a vigorous upper-level trough in the Four Corners region.
    This coincides with strong moisture advection across the Great
    Plains. The synoptic setup which the medium-range models have been
    forecasting for a couple days, could result in a significant severe
    weather event on Friday into Friday night across parts of the
    southern and central Plains with tornadoes, large hail and wind
    damage possible. Due to the potential for a higher-end event on
    Friday, have added a 15 percent contour where model consensus places
    the greatest chance of severe weather.
     
  6. Timhsv

    Timhsv Member

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    If the ECMWF comes close to verifying, BIG trouble lies ahead towards next Friday/Saturday..
     
  7. tennessee storm chaser

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    Very well spoken tim...
     
  8. warneagle

    warneagle Member

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    06z GFS suggests a threat even further south than that 15% area, all the way down into south-central TX.

    Pretty strong wording in the Day 8 discussion, already talking about this as a potentially higher-end event.
     
  9. tennessee storm chaser

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    12zgfs has one mean looking broad trough during this period... Starting to favor a Euro like solution ...this is going have to be watched closely folks
     
  10. ARCC

    ARCC Member

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    Yeah, it's getting close.
     
  11. TornadoFan

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  12. CheeselandSkies

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    I was expecting more PDS TOR soundings with a look like that...looks like it is introducing some CIN which is tempering the STP.
     
  13. tennessee storm chaser

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    12z Euro not backing down what so ever ... what great height falls its showing.
     
  14. ARCC

    ARCC Member

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    Verbatim the Euro is a tornado outbreak for a very large area. A massive area to be exact.
     
  15. gangstonc

    gangstonc Member

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    I'm at work and can't see. Would you mind describing the massive area?
     
  16. warneagle

    warneagle Member

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    Kansas City to the Mexican border and east to the Mississippi.
     
    gangstonc and CheeselandSkies like this.
  17. tennessee storm chaser

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    Today's 12z Euro has a pda look over large area to be honest
     
  18. tennessee storm chaser

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    Pds. Sorry
     
  19. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

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    The 12z EURO was an outlier of several of its previous runs, and of the GFS. But, if we start to see a trend in that direction, which is possible. I'd be really worried. Not that this threat doesn't already look quite bad without that run, but a setup like that shown on the 12z EURO could extend the seriousness of this threat over a much larger area.
     
  20. SilentShadow87

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    Yeah I wouldn't be too surprised if there was a moderate and/or high risk around next Thursday-Friday, and probably a PDS watch at some point if the 12z Euro verifies.
     

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