Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

[TW Archive]

bingcrosbyb
Posted 25 April 2011 - 09:33 PM

Oh man. Vilonia is trending on Twitter. Not good.

 

[TW Archive]

bjd
Posted 25 April 2011 - 09:34 PM

Terrible news -- nothing much yet on Google News, except that the Arkansas governor has declared a statewide state of emergency, and that some 72,000 homes and businesses are without power.

There is a more long-term threat building behind this line, too. Look at the rain amounts on radar.


Barb

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 09:37 PM

ugly cell near lufkin texas now tornado warned too....

 

[TW Archive]

Harlequhn_Boy
Posted 25 April 2011 - 09:43 PM

Any new thoughts on tomorrow?

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 09:46 PM

southern end of that line is breaking up somewhat could be concerning if these cells become more isolated...

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 09:54 PM

anyone have thoughts for tommorrow after such a painful evening?

 

[TW Archive]

gawxnative
Posted 25 April 2011 - 09:54 PM

There really has not been any discrete cells forming ahead of the QLCS.. Any thoughts as to that...

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 09:58 PM

someone is going to have to take the watches&warnings for me as ive got to get some rest tonight....

 

[TW Archive]

JeffnTrussville
Posted 25 April 2011 - 09:58 PM

someone is going to have to take the watches&warnings for me as ive got to get some rest tonight....

 

[TW Archive]

JeffnTrussville
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:01 PM

gawxnative, on 25 April 2011 - 09:54 PM, said:

There really has not been any discrete cells forming ahead of the QLCS.. Any thoughts as to that...

Yeah, but watch the southern end of the line from the LA/AR state line south. I think that is the area to watch the remainder of tonight and tomorrow morning. I think these will be more discrete in nature and the northern end of the line progresses east and weakens. It will be interesting to see how far east the northern end makes it and what kind of boundaries are formed for tomorrow's action.

 

[TW Archive]

awxperson
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:04 PM

I don't think I have ever seen model forecast soundings as insane as what the NAM is showing over eastern MS and western AL Wed afternoon. Not necessarily saying they're right - just insane.

 

[TW Archive]

Harlequhn_Boy
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:04 PM

I don't think I have ever seen model forecast soundings as insane as what the NAM is showing over eastern MS and western AL Wed afternoon. Not necessarily saying they're right - just insane.

 

[TW Archive]

Harlequhn_Boy
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:04 PM

gawxnative, on 25 April 2011 - 09:54 PM, said:

There really has not been any discrete cells forming ahead of the QLCS.. Any thoughts as to that...

Discrete cells were never really forecast once the line really got going.

 

[TW Archive]

Fred Gossage
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:10 PM

Just thought I'd throw this out there.... Would be REALLY nervous about taking the modeled surface winds at absolute face value for Wednesday... with a deepening low pressure just to the west... in a large envelope of already low-enough-for-violent-tornadoes surface pressures over a large area... and the slp is trending stronger in the guidance. We've seen this bias in the NAM and GFS multiple times this year... only to see itself corrected at the last minute, sometimes the morning of... and we all of a sudden have this insane helicity that has seemingly come out of nowhere. Don't let numbers fool you when the meteorology on the map screams trouble.

 

[TW Archive]

awxperson
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:13 PM

Fred Gossage, on 25 April 2011 - 10:10 PM, said:

Just thought I'd throw this out there.... Would be REALLY nervous about taking the modeled surface winds at absolute face value for Wednesday... with a deepening low pressure just to the west... in a large envelope of already low-enough-for-violent-tornadoes surface pressures over a large area... and the slp is trending stronger in the guidance. We've seen this bias in the NAM and GFS multiple times this year... only to see itself corrected at the last minute, sometimes the morning of... and we all of a sudden have this insane helicity that has seemingly come out of nowhere. Don't let numbers fool you when the meteorology on the map screams trouble.

Agree with that. The NAM in particular is notorious for too much mixing which causes it to have unidirectional flow in the low levels, reducing its helicity.

 

[TW Archive]

NathansGal
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:17 PM

bingcrosbyb, on 25 April 2011 - 09:29 PM, said:

Storm just NW of little rock prior to hitting Vilonia.

TaylorCampbell, on 25 April 2011 - 09:32 PM, said:

I believe that is the wall cloud from the storm that went very near the NWS office north of Little Rock. Not the Vilonia storm because you would see a completely different view I would think.

You're correct TaylorCampbell, TWC said this pic is not of the tornado that hit Vilonia but another storm!

 

[TW Archive]

bingcrosbyb
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:21 PM

NathansGal, on 25 April 2011 - 10:17 PM, said:

You're correct TaylorCampbell, TWC said this pic is not of the tornado that hit Vilonia but another storm!

Yep. Thanks for the correction!

 

[TW Archive]

bingcrosbyb
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:21 PM

Damn....

Reed Timmer Twitter:
I bet Vilonia gets an EF5 rating. Very bad situation up there.

 

[TW Archive]

ALhurricane
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:25 PM

SREF sig tor parameters are nearly identical to what we saw on April 15th...with a slight shift to the north. Also, a look at the shear vectors indicates to me that it will take a long time to line out on Wednesday with long lasting discrete activity. If I were SPC, I would extend the new day 2 MDT risk further south to encompass portions of S AL/MS.

 

[TW Archive]

TimHSV
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:28 PM

I dont think I've seen this type of shear with such high velocity returns on a SRV before? Pretty amazing