March Discussion

[warneagle]

I definitely wouldn't sleep on S MN/N IA either. Some serious shear values between the Twin Cities and Des Moines.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Significant clearing (perhaps more than expected) showing up on visible satellite over W and C IA, SW MN, NE KS and NW MO.

 

[TornadoFan]

Still showing fairly decent dryline in place.

 

[Kory]

Significant clearing (perhaps more than expected) showing up on visible satellite over W and C IA, SW MN, NE KS and NW MO.

That might actually serve to mix out dew points.....

 

[warneagle]

Tornado watch coming soon for almost all of Iowa.

Also, since we're talking 10% TOR + hatched, does this maybe merit its own thread?

 

[SilentShadow87]

Tornado watch out for most of Iowa, 50/30 probs. Watches are also expected for southern Minnesota and northern Missouri/northeastern Kansas.

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 61
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Much of Iowa

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will rapidly progress
east-northeast from the Missouri towards the Mississippi river
during the evening. This activity will likely form into an extensive
line of storms with all severe hazards possible, but damaging winds
as the main risk.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Mason City IA to 50
miles south southwest of Knoxville IA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24045.

...Grams

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Honestly I think this setup has everything going for it except for somewhat sub-ideal moisture trajectories due to that pesky ridge centered just off the Atlantic coast, and wind profiles a little more parallel to the cold front that I would like to see across the northern end of the threat. Still, I think the potential is there for widespread wind and hail from Iowa to Oklahoma, with 1 or 2 potentially dangerous tornadic supercells primarily over E KS or W MO. This event could approach, but probably not match or exceed, last Tuesday in magnitude. Following severe weather over the last few years, I've become a big fan of lapse rates/cold air aloft.

 

[warneagle]

New watch is out for northwest Missouri, northeast Kansas, and far southeast Nebraska.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Tornado on the ground in Missouri. Obvious debris signature as it passed through Trimble.

 

[Equus]

Major confirmed tornado moving through NE parts of Kansas City at the moment.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Town of Lathrop in danger.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Tornado on the ground headed for Oak Grove, MO.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Tornado on the ground headed for Oak Grove, MO.

Actually looks to hit Bates City head on.

 

[warneagle]

Headed for Odessa now. Looks like it's still on the ground.

 

[warneagle]

New watch coming including the St. Louis metro.

 

[rolltide_130]

Honestly I think this setup has everything going for it except for somewhat sub-ideal moisture trajectories due to that pesky ridge centered just off the Atlantic coast, and wind profiles a little more parallel to the cold front that I would like to see across the northern end of the threat. Still, I think the potential is there for widespread wind and hail from Iowa to Oklahoma, with 1 or 2 potentially dangerous tornadic supercells primarily over E KS or W MO. This event could approach, but probably not match or exceed, last Tuesday in magnitude. Following severe weather over the last few years, I've become a big fan of lapse rates/cold air aloft.

Absolutely excellent forecast there. Gonna have to see how things evolve over SW MO/NW AR but you have nailed it.

 

[warneagle]

This thing is moving right down I-70. I hope they've got traffic cleared.

 

[Timhsv]

Northern AR/SW MO is about to get ugly I regret to say

 

[rolltide_130]

Northern AR/SW MO is about to get ugly I regret to say

The cell moving into Fayetteville has my full attention.. that thing is moving into a VERY nasty environment.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Absolutely excellent forecast there. Gonna have to see how things evolve over SW MO/NW AR but you have nailed it.

Thanks. I'm still a very amateur severe weather forecaster but I have learned a lot from some of the regulars on this board.

Wind whistling through the wires and bare trees here in Madison, WI. Cool but humid and if it wasn't for that wind I probably wouldn't even need my hoodie to be comfortable outside. Kind of spooky especially considering we usually still have a several inch snowpack this time of year. Blue box in effect, line rocketing through E. IA with two tornado warnings. I think with another day of moisture return today could have been on a par with some high-end east Plains/Midwest March events like 3/12/06 or 3/13/90.

Events like today also remind me of the glaring radar holes that exist in some quite tornado-prone parts of the central Midwest. Draw a parallelogram between OAX, DMX, EAX and TWX and put a radar smack dab in the middle, then do the same for DMX-DVN-EAX-LSX.