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Harvey inland severe threat (August 31-September 1)

JayF

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Here we go. First Tornado Warning of the day.
The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Pickens County in west central Alabama...

* Until 400 PM CDT

* At 312 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Garden, or over Aliceville, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
 

Daryl

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
348 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

ALC057-075-107-312130-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-170831T2130Z/
Pickens AL-Fayette AL-Lamar AL-
348 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS...SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR
COUNTIES...

At 348 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Ashcraft Corner, or 7 miles north of Reform, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fayette, Reform, Millport, Kennedy, Belk, Ashcraft Corner, Cody,
Bevill State College Fayette, Stone Wall, Richard Arthur Field and
Fayette County Public Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.
 

JayF

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL092017
400 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 90.5W
ABOUT 30 MILES...45 KM...NW OF GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SSW OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...20 MPH...30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 045 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WATCHES AND FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 90.5
WEST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS FORECAST TRACK TAKES HARVEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, AND MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STATES
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A POST-TROPICAL LOW.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
-------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO
5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM WESTERN TO CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND WESTERN TO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA, SOUTHERN OHIO
AND WEST CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE TO WEST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. THESE RAINS WILL ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOODING RISK ACROSS
THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN AND
AROUND HOUSTON, BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR/ORANGE, AND EASTWARD AROUND
THE LOUISIANA BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY MAY
ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND INCREASED RIVER AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE
IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.

...SELECTED PRELIMINARY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 4
PM CDT


FORECASTER TATE

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 31/2100Z 33.8N 90.5W
12HR VT 01/0600Z 35.0N 88.0W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 01/1800Z 36.3N 85.8W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36HR VT 02/0600Z 37.6N 84.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 02/1800Z 39.0N 83.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
 

Daryl

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DIlhVjCWsAIAmXh.jpg


Tornado as seen from southern Fayette co.
 

Daryl

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From Spann,Palmetto has damage. Multiple trees down blocking roads. Fire Department dispatched for possible people entrapped in house.Mobile home also reported destroyed.
 

JayF

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Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
423 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Tuscaloosa County in west central Alabama...
Northeastern Pickens County in west central Alabama...
Central Fayette County in west central Alabama...

* Until 515 PM CDT

* At 422 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Gordo, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation
 

bwalk

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The NWS used the wording: "At 432 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
located near Glen Allen, or near Winfield, moving northeast at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION."

I am struggling with this wording. This type of wording used to be reserved for F4-F5 situations. Can a F1 tornado be considered "extremely dangerous", for example? What is the criteria for a tornado being considered "extremely dangerous" and a "particular" (i.e., in this case) dangerous situation.

I don't know the answer - it just seems over the last couple of years this phraseology gets used on an increasing number of tornadoes - regardless of their strength. If I had to defend the policy I would say ANY tornado creates an extremely dangerous situation for unsheltered individuals.

Any insight from others?
 

MichelleH

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The NWS used the wording: "At 432 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
located near Glen Allen, or near Winfield, moving northeast at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION."

I am struggling with this wording. This type of wording used to be reserved for F4-F5 situations. Can a F1 tornado be considered "extremely dangerous", for example? What is the criteria for a tornado being considered "extremely dangerous" and a "particular" (i.e., in this case) dangerous situation.

I don't know the answer - it just seems over the last couple of years this phraseology gets used on an increasing number of tornadoes - regardless of their strength. If I had to defend the policy I would say ANY tornado creates an extremely dangerous situation for unsheltered individuals.

Any insight from others?

Kevin Laws from the B'ham NWS told James Spann that this was NOT a typical tropical tornado and to hit the wording hard to take cover. As it stands now, I know of at least 4 confirmed injuries and 1 home destroyed. That number will probably go up.
 

JayF

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The NWS used the wording: "At 432 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
located near Glen Allen, or near Winfield, moving northeast at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION."

I am struggling with this wording. This type of wording used to be reserved for F4-F5 situations. Can a F1 tornado be considered "extremely dangerous", for example? What is the criteria for a tornado being considered "extremely dangerous" and a "particular" (i.e., in this case) dangerous situation.

I don't know the answer - it just seems over the last couple of years this phraseology gets used on an increasing number of tornadoes - regardless of their strength. If I had to defend the policy I would say ANY tornado creates an extremely dangerous situation for unsheltered individuals.

Any insight from others?

Even an EF1 can be dangerous for those who are near it. But the number of people affected by an EF1 vs an EF4-5 is very different. I would only use the Extremely Dangerous Situation for those tornadoes that are going to affect the greatest number of people. Should everyone take precautions when there is a Tornado Warning? Absolutely and pay attention. But we have to be careful because people may create panic where none is warranted.
 

weunice

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My website notes the difference between warnings with PDS or LARGE TORNADO denoted in the warning. Recently I started logging them like LSRs with the presumption, they are at a minimum radar indicated TDS's or spotted tornadoes. Were there really that many PDS or LARGE TORNADO designations on warning updates today?

21200884_597567293967028_267745234605843208_o.jpg
 

Lori

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Poor Bibb County!!


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Casie

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In Hoover right now. Inflow is crazy. Off Valleydale and Riverchase Pkwy. No rain currently, just inflow winds
 

Daryl

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The tornado that tracked from Reform to N of Fayette has been rated EF2 with 115 mph winds. Path length was 31 miles.NWS Huntsville has rated the Cullman/Marshall County tornado (Holly Pond/Joppa) as EF-2 with maximum winds of 115 mph also.
 
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