2017 Hurricane Season Discussion

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Mike S, Apr 17, 2017.

  1. Taylor Campbell

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    NAVGEM, and CMC picking up on two storms.

    GFS appears to be the most aggressive in strength with this tropical wave now coming off Africa. It shows a storm in about 48 hours.

    Similar to last time (i.e. Invest 99L) the operational EURO is kinda blah compared to all the other models.

    Though definitely plenty of activity to watch for development.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    0z Euro has a storm threatening South Florida at 240 hours from the African wave
     
  3. Taylor Campbell

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    Looks like there were a couple of other potential storms at that hour.
     
  4. Taylor Campbell

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    Satellite imagery doesn't show much more than a very broad, and disorganized area of storms. There's a lot of work to be done if we are going to see a storm soon. Also, a pretty sheared environment sits to the west so if nothing can get its act together in a big way then it'll have more troubles doing so later. So far.... everything looks, and feels like this is just another 99L. But, I see better potential in anything that comes of this to be a US threat.
     
  5. Taylor Campbell

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    12z GFS turned the switch off.
     
  6. Taylor Campbell

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    The area is looking better today. Two distinct spins with Invest 91L, and 92L. Still there is some SAL dust around, and wind shear out to the west. If you look medium to long range, the unfavorable wind shear is eventually forecast to subside.
     
  7. JayF

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    Busy day in the Atlantic today.
     

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  8. WesL

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    Euro says what....
    [​IMG]
     
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  9. JayF

    JayF Administrator
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    That would be IRMA and the storm that is forming off the coast of Africa right now. Going to be a busy September.


     
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  10. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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    So yeah, to say the tropics have woken up after a very long slumber is an understatement.
     
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  11. KoD

    KoD Member
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    I know the weather channel needs their ad revenue but I can't stand watching it when 65% is commercial.
     
  12. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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    1. Updated: A small area of low pressure has developed over the
    central Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles east-southeast of
    Bermuda. The low is producing a concentrated area of showers and
    thunderstorms, although the circulation appears somewhat elongated.
    Some additional development of this system is possible during the
    next few days while it moves slowly northward through early next
    week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    Forecaster Berg/Blake
     
  13. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
    northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba to the Bahamas is associated
    with a surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. An area
    of low pressure is likely to form from this weather system while it
    moves northward across Cuba and near the east coast of the Florida
    peninsula during the next few days, and environmental conditions
    appear conducive for development before upper-level winds become
    less favorable early next week. Regardless of development, this
    system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of
    Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the
    next several days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


    This will probably be mostly a rainmaker

    But there are strong hints of a hurricane coming from the Yucatan/Cuba area in the LR towards the Gulf.
     
  14. David in SW Blount

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    I remember reading some speculation that Jose would be upgraded to Cat 5 after later analysis. Anymore discussion of that?
     
  15. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    likely won't be decided til the winter after the season ends

    it has definitely been discussed though
     
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  16. Dissident Aggressor

    Hurricane Irma

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  17. David in SW Blount

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    That would crazy. Three Cat 5's within a couple of weeks of each other in the same general region.
     
  18. WesL

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    [​IMG]

    Ugh.
     
  19. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    Tried to be funny-ish but hey look at the Florida straights...


     
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  20. JayF

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    Possible New Formation in the next 5 days.

    two_atl_5d0.png
     

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