2017 Hurricane Season Discussion

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Mike S, Apr 17, 2017.

  1. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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    Per the NHC:




    two_atl_2d0.png
     
  2. South AL Wx

    South AL Wx Member
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    Subtropical Depression One has formed. It is currently not forecast to reach subtropical storm strength:

    ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
    ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...31.9N 40.9W
    ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
     
  3. apocalyptic_pleasures

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    Could there be another invest/area of interest for April??

    vis-l.jpg

     
  4. JayF

    JayF Administrator
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    WesL likes this.
  5. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    Good find! Sounds like something I might join up and watch.
     
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  6. JayF

    JayF Administrator
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    First Webinar is tomorrow at 8 AM Central Time. Go register if you are interested in what NOAA has to say regarding the 2017 Hurricane Season.
     
  7. JayF

    JayF Administrator
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  8. JayF

    JayF Administrator
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    Very informative webinar from NOAA today. If tropical weather or weather satellites, forecasting, and weather imagery is something you are interested in, definitely go take a look at their webinar series. They have three more. I will try to post the slides from today's webinar when I can get them.
     
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  9. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    its very early, but starting to see some signs of maybe some tropical development in the vicinity of the Bahamas in the long range, and the 0z GFS tonight has a threat to the east coast at day 12, lol

    The CMC and Euro have also shown signs of something brewing though not a full blown storm yet

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Bama Ravens

    Bama Ravens Member

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    The GFS wants to try to start a weak system up in the western Gulf this weekend, but it goes away pretty fast.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    It looks like some energy winds up in the Western Gulf from TD 2-E in the EPAC, but I'm not too convinced yet on it getting beyond that

    There has been somewhat consistent signals of a storm before Mid June though, and the MJO does turn favorable towards the 2nd week(which ironically I'm going out of town then so naturally something will probably form) :p
     
    #11 Brent, May 31, 2017
    Last edited: May 31, 2017
  12. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
    will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
    named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
    respectively.

    The list of names for 2017 is as follows:

    Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Arlene ar-LEEN Lee lee
    Bret bret Maria ma-REE-ah
    Cindy SIN-dee Nate nait
    Don dahn Ophelia o-FEEL-ya
    Emily EH-mih-lee Philippe fee-LEEP
    Franklin FRANK-lin Rina REE-nuh
    Gert gert Sean shawn
    Harvey HAR-vee Tammy TAM-ee
    Irma ER-mah Vince vinss
    Jose ho-ZAY Whitney WHIT-nee
    Katia KAH-tyah

    One tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Arlene, already formed this
    year in April. The next named storm that forms this season will be
    Bret.

    This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
    significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
    tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance
    times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After the
    change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7
    AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

    A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
    updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
    of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
    will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
    Tropical Weather Outlooks.

    A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
    public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
    a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
    ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
    may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
    changes or to modify watches or warnings.

    Beginning this season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will have
    the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for
    disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the
    threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land
    areas within 48 hours. For these land-threatening "potential
    tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and
    watch/warning products that previously had been issued only for
    tropical cyclones. Potential tropical cyclones will share the
    naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions,
    being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One", "Two", "Three",
    etc.).

    The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
    significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches
    or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between
    intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by
    radar. The Tropical Cyclone Update is also used in lieu of or to
    precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical
    Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found under
    WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

    All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at
    www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text products
    can be found at www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcprod.shtml,
    while more information about NHC graphical products can be
    found at www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml.

    You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at
    https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via
    Twitter when select NHC products are issued. Information about our
    Atlantic Twitter feed is available at
    www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg
     
  13. Bama Ravens

    Bama Ravens Member

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    GFS at hour 384, June 20th (lol):

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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    I do not like this new "potential tropical cyclone" stuff coming from the NHC. It just adds confusion. There was nothing wrong with the way it was done before.
     
  15. Taylor Campbell

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    Tropics look to heat up again during the week of the 4th. The GFS has shown development in the GOM for several runs, and has moved it forward in time. Fair amount of ensemble support too.
     
  16. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    Definitely not the biggest fan either, and the little group of weather friends I was talking to on Facebook was pretty much lost and confused too... not the greatest thing ever at least not yet.

    I was really high on the idea on paper in the off season(for the invests that take forever to develop and you just know they'll threaten land), but this was kind of weird.
     
  17. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

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    In the long range, around the 15th, the GFS spins up low-level vorticity at 50W 10N, and it looks like environmental conditions improve for development in the Caribbean. It'll be interesting to see what comes of this time frame, and further on. I've seen several GFS ensemble members show a rather robust storm threatening the US.
     
  18. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    12z GFS has a major hurricane at day 9 near the Lesser Antilles lol

    Has a hurricane landfall on the Florida Peninsula in 2 weeks...

    [​IMG]
     
    #18 Brent, Jul 6, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2017
  19. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

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    Stronger earlier in time this run than the last. The disturbance has looked healthy over Africa the past few nights.
     
  20. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    18z GFS blows up in the Eastern Caribbean then is much weaker and hangs around Hispanola and Cuba then blows up into a major in the Eastern Gulf and hits the Panhandle on day 16
     

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