March Discussion

Looks like it's coming in stormy!

Looks like a quieter and more seasonal period is ahead. A few glancing blows with some cooler airmasses through the first two weeks of March look likely but I'd hedge my bets on above normal temps once everything is averaged.

Some blocking in the higher latitudes will act to suppress the pattern....which might act to shift the storm track south for the second half of March. But that's way out there.....

The operational GFS has shown something quite significant for several runs going into next weekend. There has also been some pretty gnarly ensemble members of the GFS, though an obvious disagreement and inconsistency between each other.

Taylor Campbell said:

The operational GFS has shown something quite significant for several runs going into next weekend. There has also been some pretty gnarly ensemble members of the GFS, though an obvious disagreement and inconsistency between each other.

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Im seeing that too Taylor. Interesting to watch next several runs....

Taylor Campbell said:

The operational GFS has shown something quite significant for several runs going into next weekend. There has also been some pretty gnarly ensemble members of the GFS, though an obvious disagreement and inconsistency between each other.

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Boy does it. Not to mention the global models are not on the same page whatsoever. That really adds to the uncertainty but for whatever the worth, the Euro solution doesn't have much ensemble support.

00zGFS is till trying to say something about next weekend...with a RRQ 130knt jet into AR, with what looks like a spliting jet? It has it eye on the SE....watching

10% tor added for Southern Missouri (which I think needs to be expanded further north). Some crazy shear values....will have just enough instability to work with. Tornadic discrete supercells might be limited as it quickly goes upstream into a squall line, but some notable UH streaks in Missouri and into Iowa later this evening into early overnight hours.

Looks like I finally have a Severe Threat to follow-up on over the Weekend.

SPC has a risk area out in the SE for 3/11.

gangstonc said:

SPC has a risk area out in the SE for 3/11.

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Surprised they outlooked this area so soon. Model uncertainly post day 4 has been very high. Not to mention, some of the latest runs don't look that impressive. But something to keep an eye on....

Models came into better agreement with overnight runs. The SPC thinks there is enough confidence now to introduce a day 6 risk area for severe weather.

This certainly doesn't scream severe weather to me....

The low amplitude nature of this pattern continues to make this forecast for the weekend a pain. Won't take much to make this a bigger threat or trend to pretty much nothing...so it's highly uncertain as Thompson said that details will likely change.

Yeah the GFS has been all over the place with this coming weekend. I'm going to wait until Thursday or Friday to buy my ticket for the #HYPETRAIN.

Kory said:

Surprised they outlooked this area so soon. Model uncertainly post day 4 has been very high. Not to mention, some of the latest runs don't look that impressive. But something to keep an eye on....

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The low amplitude nature of the system will definently keep things varying in forecast.

Storm Prediction Center

Given the low-amplitude nature of
this system, some predictability/timing concerns will likely linger
to within 2-3 days of the potential event. Still, the quality of
the warm sector and strengthening wind profiles with the
wave/cyclogenesis appear supportive of an organized severe-storm
risk, even if the exact details of the threat area will probably
change in later outlooks.

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warneagle said:

Yeah the GFS has been all over the place with this coming weekend. I'm going to wait until Thursday or Friday to buy my ticket for the #HYPETRAIN.

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Euro/UKMET/CMC has as well. All thanks to some significant high latitude blocking....

SPC upped the wording on the latest Day 1 to include potential strong tornadoes. Now there's a 10% hatched area from about KC to Columbia to Joplin.

10% hatched tor risk added for MO/East KS.

Some very notable UH streaks from Eastern KS into MO. Goes linear pretty quick per the HRRR, but winds aren't completely parallel to the boundary....so a tor threat should continue with the QLCS.