Severe Weather Threat - Jan 11-12th, 2024

[JBishopwx]

From what I can gather from BMX it was due to uncertainty in the models. The models were not showing the warm front or warmer air making it into the area. Because of that, temperatures at the surface would be lower than ideal to get the energy for storms. They (SPC) thought the models were undercutting this and there would actually be more energy than shown. Confidence was higher that the energy may not make it, so hence the flip.

 

[Gail]

My tornado shelter was supposed to get put in this week, but they couldn’t because of the rain we’ve had. Now, they’re saying next week, but I don’t think that’s going to happen either. I would have loved to had it for tomorrow.

 

[Blountwolf]

So now that all the Birmingham area schools have closed tomorrow, I assume the threat is lessening?

 

[cyelle21]

I live in in the Selma area and tomorrow is the anniversary of the tornado that ripped through our town. I wonder what the odds actually are of a tornado hitting our location on the anniversary a year later? Everyone around here is on high alert since it seems like it was just yesterday. We are still cleaning up from last year.

 

[TH2002]

I live in in the Selma area and tomorrow is the anniversary of the tornado that ripped through our town. I wonder what the odds actually are of a tornado hitting our location on the anniversary a year later? Everyone around here is on high alert since it seems like it was just yesterday. We are still cleaning up from last year.

Tanner, AL got hit by two violent tornadoes about an hour apart during the 1974 Super Outbreak. Edenton, NC was hit by two different EF2 tornadoes within a half hour of each other during the April 25, 2014 outbreak. Unfortunately, stranger things have happened.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[wx_guy]

HazCast Tornado probabilities tomorrow. Relatively strong signal in Mississippi, and I'd be willing to bet 1-2 problematic cells further south tomorrow, too. Personally I doubt more than that, but who knows.

 

[wx_guy]

Just looked at the 22z HRRR...I'm surprised at the robustness of the system across the southern AL/ FL Panhandle. Curious if the SPC may have to make the area Enhanced if the trend continues. Thoughts, anyone? (I know the Level ultimately doesn't matter too much...but the general public pays a lot more attention to a Level 3 out of 5 vs a "Slight" risk...)

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Just looked at the 22z HRRR...I'm surprised at the robustness of the system across the southern AL/ FL Panhandle. Curious if the SPC may have to make the area Enhanced if the trend continues. Thoughts, anyone? (I know the Level ultimately doesn't matter too much...but the general public pays a lot more attention to a Level 3 out of 5 vs a "Slight" risk...)

Wow. The 22z run is a lot more instability across most of the *northern area* . 1000j all the way into northern central Alabama. That's a considerable uptick. Man if the real time obs in the morning are up a few degrees, it makes me a bit nervous

 

[tornado examiner]

Wow. The 22z run is a lot more instability across most of the area. 1000j all the way into northern central Alabama. That's a considerable uptick. Man if the real time obs in the morning are up a few degrees, it makes me a bit nervous

Oh…so Friday is uptrending now? Who could’ve seen that coming!?

 

[wx_guy]

Wow. The 22z run is a lot more instability across most of the area. 1000j all the way into northern central Alabama. That's a considerable uptick. Man if the real time obs in the morning are up a few degrees, it makes me a bit nervous

Yeah, I was ready to write off the southern part of the event (besides the Mississippi/Arkansas part), but I'm curious to what the next couple of HRRR runs say, and maybe the RRFS A too...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Oh…so Friday is uptrending now? Who could’ve seen that coming!?

Just one run, maybe the one crazy run that always happens before a event lol. Let's see what the next few say.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Still like the guidance by the SPC but closely watching for a wrench in the system lol

Decent little uptick in the Northern most Area of instability.

 

[Clancy]

Quite a few GA schools closing tomorrow. A bit strange considering we previously didn't do this even for moderate risks.

Multiple metro Atlanta school districts cancel classes Friday ahead of storms

The first metro Atlanta school district has canceled classes Friday ahead of storms.

www.wsbtv.com

 

[WeatherDan]

Quite a few GA schools closing tomorrow. A bit strange considering we previously didn't do this even for moderate risks.

Multiple metro Atlanta school districts cancel classes Friday ahead of storms

The first metro Atlanta school district has canceled classes Friday ahead of storms.

www.wsbtv.com

I'm sure the fact that it's a holiday weekend is a factor. Our school has very little school work planned, and was just going to hold class parties.

 

[wx_guy]

So then 23z HRRR is in. So I took a box sounding of SW AL:

Here are the results:



Interesting. Dry air above the surface, but moist at the surface. With decent parameters overall, and curvy hodographs and storm slinky. Hmm.

 

[Clancy]

So then 23z HRRR is in. So I took a box sounding of SW AL: View attachment 23279

Here are the results:


View attachment 23278
Interesting. Dry air above the surface, but moist at the surface. With decent parameters overall, and curvy hodographs and storm slinky. Hmm.

This setup really knows how to push everyone's buttons. Very similar to 3/3/23 in regards to forecasted evolution.

 

[wx_guy]

This setup really knows how to push everyone's buttons. Very similar to 3/3/23 in regards to forecasted evolution.

Do you think I'm looking into it too deeply? haha I fully admit I might be lol

 

[Clancy]

Do you think I'm looking into it too deeply? haha I fully admit I might be lol

Not at all! I think this is a really interesting, complex and layered setup. Definitely great learning opportunities to be had; hopefully the severe is a no-show for tomorrow though!

 

[MattW]

It's starting to pop in ArkLaTex. Latest mesoanalysis has sigtor up to 2.5 back into North Texas/Southern OK.